Now that a ceasefire with Russia is in the cards, I wanted to offer some thoughts on what I consider fake vs real peace deals. I also haven't blogged about the Ukraine war recently, since I don't find the subject very interesting— it's just been the same old endless losing and endless coping for them and their supporters (a ritual they somehow never get tired of).
What I really want to talk about is the broader subject of 'peace deals'. Namely, I think this is part of the broader betrayal of Trump's anti-establishment / populist base, not anything real or substantial.
What they're doing is temporarily de-escalating on one losing front, but not in order to change things up or wind down the level of interventionism, it's so they can re-focus the money and weapons to some other losing front or possibly even start a new war.
In this case, what they have in mind is de-escalating on the Russian front (following another major defeat) so they can re-direct all the energy to fighting Venezuela instead. This is a fairly obvious call, given the massive build in the region.
It's also a warning sign that the actual power of the US military is collapsing, since it no longer has the industrial capacity or manpower or logistic ability to fight on multiple fronts at the same time. Instead what they have to do is isolate one front by pausing all the other wars, stage highly theatrical bombings and assassinations, and then quickly back down before the real fighting starts, before doing the exact same thing somewhere else-- but always failing to achieve their real objectives, whether regime-change, winning territory, securing trade-routes, capturing resources, or whatever.
Contrast this with the peak of American military performance during WW2, when we could fight (and win) on multiple fronts, while enjoying the support of the domestic population, and without bringing down the entire economy, and you can see how far things have fallen in terms of industrial capability, long-term strategic thought, and so on and so forth.
And since nothing in the real world is frozen / static, this will continue to get worse and worse over time. The military will be weaker in the future, with less equipment to throw away and less support at home, and the economy will be more and more indebted and less capable of producing anything worthwhile to feed into the meat grinder.
We are also not ditching the losers in Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, etc in order to make deals with Russia / Iran / China / etc that would allow us access to energy, trade routes, etc, which we need in order to stabilize our economy. It's simply dialing down the heat, but without altering any of the long-term dynamics, meaning that (1) nothing will change and (2) there will be no economic benefit to re-compensate us for the massive waste of blood, money, equipment, etc.
The wars will likely resume in 5-10 years (maybe sooner), since none of the participants have any reason to stick by these flimsy / cynical agreements, and perhaps with more intensity than before. And since, like I said above, we're only going to get weaker and weaker, the side being backed by the Pentagon will get raped harder than before by Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, etc.
It's just kicking the can down the road, and calling that a win, a short-term defeat for an even larger loss in the long run-- retarded, but also typical of the Trump administration and spineless American / Western elites in general.
Also, and as usual, Trump, Musk, Vivek, and the GOP in general are relying on MAGA supporters being too stupid to tell the difference between real vs fake outcomes, and too addicted to slop consumption to push back against them, which is why their army of paid apologists is now working overtime to rationalize yet another destructive wasteful foreign war as AKSHUALLY America 1st. After so many betrayals, the MAGA base (at least judging by the Internet) is now just an army of die-hard masochists and cucks, led by paid shills at the top, marching happily into yet another massive disaster-- better to just leave them to their fate, if that's how they want to go out, then join the doomed suicidal cult.